Estimating the equilibrium effective exchange rate for potential EMU Members (Journal article)

Giannellis, N.,/ Papadopoulos, A.

In this study, we attempt to examine the possibility of emergence of significant fluctuations of the exchange rates in the future for the candidate EMU countries. In doing so, we estimate the equilibrium rate of the nominal effective exchange rate for Poland, Hungary, Slovak Republic and Malta through the BEER and PEER approaches. While the PEER-based estimation implies a large misalignment rate for the Hungarian forint, the BEER-based analysis shows that the present exchange rates of the countries considered do not deviate significantly from their equilibrium rates. As a consequence, based on BEER analysis, we do not expect large fluctuations in the effective exchange rates among the currencies considered. Hence, the relevant effective exchange rates are expected to be relatively stable. As a matter of fact, the entry of those countries into EMU is not expected to weaken the stability of Euro.
Institution and School/Department of submitter: Πανεπιστήμιο Ιωαννίνων. Σχολή Οικονομικών και Κοινωνικών Επιστημών. Τμήμα Οικονομικών Επιστημών
Keywords: Exchange rate, Cointegration, BEER, PEER
URI: https://olympias.lib.uoi.gr/jspui/handle/123456789/11212
Publisher: Springer
Appears in Collections:Άρθρα σε επιστημονικά περιοδικά ( Ανοικτά)

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